Pao-Li CHANG (張寶莉)


Associate Professor

School of Economics

Singapore Management University

90 Stamford Road, #05-042

Singapore 178903


Tel:         (65) 6828-0830

Fax:        (65) 6828-0833






Ph.D., Economics, University of Michigan, 2002.

A.M., Economics, University of Michigan, 1997.

A.B., Business Administration, National Taiwan University, 1994.



Pao-Li is currently an Associate Professor of Economics at Singapore Management University (SMU), an Associate Editor for Review of World Economics / Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, and an Editorial Board member for Taiwan Economic Review. She graduated with a PhD in Economics from the University of Michigan. Her research specializes in the area of international trade, foreign direct investment (FDI), applied econometrics, and their interfaces with institutions. She is in particular interested in the working of the GATT/WTO multilateral trading system, the political economy of trade policy, the effects of political institutions on FDI, and the interaction of trade with education system. Pao-Li has published in renowned journals such as International Economic Review, Journal of International Economics, Econometrics Journal, and Mathematical Social Sciences. She has also worked as a consultant for the United Nations Secretariat and the Boston Consulting Group on trade-related projects, and served as referees for many well-known economics journals. She was awarded research excellence and teaching excellence awards from SMU.


She is a Taiwanese, married to a Japanese with three daughters.



Journal Articles

1.       “Trade and Divergence in Education Systems,” International Economic Review, November 2014, 55(4): 1251–1280. With Fali Huang (SMU).

Article  Technical Appendix

2.       “Risk and the Technology Content of FDI: A Dynamic Model,” Journal of International Economics, March 2012, 86(2): 306–317. With Chia-Hui Lu (City University of Hong Kong).

Article  Working paper version

3.       “The WTO Trade Effect,” Journal of International Economics, September 2011, 85(1): 5371. With Myoung-Jae Lee (Korea University).

Article  Data & Programs  Working paper version

4.       “Estimation of Impulse Response Functions Using Long Autoregression,” Econometrics Journal, July 2007, 10(2): 453–469. With Shinichi Sakata (University of British Columbia).


5.        “Avoiding Arbitrary Exclusion Restrictions Using Ratios of Reduced-Form Estimates,” Empirical Economics, 2007, 33: 339–357. With Myoung-Jae Lee (Korea University).


6.       “L S Penrose's limit theorem: Tests by simulation,” Mathematical Social Sciences, January 2006, 51(1): 90–106. With Vincent C.H. Chua (SMU) and Moshé Machover (LSE).


7.       “Protection for sale under monopolistic competition,” Journal of International Economics, July 2005, 66(2): 509–526.


8.       “How accurate are confidence intervals for impulse responses in large VAR models?” Economics Letters, December 2000, 69(3): 299–307. With Lutz Kilian (University of Michigan).



Working Papers (contact me for the latest version)

1.       “Institutional Complementarity across Countries in Bilateral FDI Flows: Theory and Evidence,” July 2016. A previous version titled, Complementarity in Institutional Quality in Bilateral FDI Flows,” was circulated in Oct 2014 under SMU Economics & Statistics Working Paper Series No. 20-2014.


2.       “Country Image and International Trade,” with Tomoki Fujii (SMU), Dec 2016. A previous version was circulated in July 2012 under SMU Economics & Statistics Working Paper Series No. 29-2012.


3.       The GATT/WTO Welfare Effects: 1950--2015,” with Wei Jin (SMU PhD student), version August 2017.


4.       “The Korean Wave: Determinants and Implications,” with Hyojung Lee (SMU), version August 2017.



Work in Progress

1.       “Entrepreneurship, Education System, and Trade Pattern,” with Alan Deardorff (University of Michigan).

2.       “The Missing Middle in Product Quality Distribution.”

3.       “A Characterization of FDI Location Choice based on a Global Firm-level Dataset: Productivity, R&D, Institutions, and Upstreamness,” with Yuting Chen (SMU PhD student).

4.       “Trade and the Global Recession Revisited,” with Yu Sun (SMU) and Xin Yi (SMU PhD student).

Latest update 8/29/2017