Pao-Li
CHANG (張寶莉)
|
Associate Dean (Research
and Partnership & Engagement) Director, SMU Centre
for Research on International Trade Associate Professor of
Economics School of Economics Singapore Management
University 90 Stamford Road, #6003.1 Singapore 178903 Tel: (65) 6828-0830 Fax: (65) 6828-0833 E-mail: plchang@smu.edu.sg |
|
Ph.D., Economics, University of Michigan, 2002.
A.M., Economics, University of Michigan, 1997.
A.B., Business Administration, National Taiwan University, 1994.
Bio:
Pao-Li is currently the Associate Dean (Research and Partnership &
Engagement), the Director of SMU Centre for Research on International Trade, and an Associate
Professor of Economics at Singapore Management University (SMU). She graduated with
a PhD in Economics from the University of Michigan. Pao-Li has published in renowned journals such
as Management Science, International Economic Review, Journal of
International Economics, Journal of Development Economics, Journal of Environmental
Economics and Management, and Econometrics
Journal. She has served on the editorial board of Review of World
Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, Kiel Institute,
Germany), and several others. Pao-Li
has won several research grants, including an MOE AcRF Tier 3 grant (2025-2030)
on the “Role of Firm-to-Firm Input-Output Linkages in Transmitting Aggregate
Shocks” as the lead PI.
Research areas:
GATT/WTO institution and
laws
Political
economy of trade policies
Empirical
analysis of trade and foreign direct investment
Quantitative analysis of trade flows and welfare evaluations
Effects
of political institutions on FDI flows
Impact of
education systems on human capital composition and trade patterns
Measurement of global value chain
Effects
of preference and demand shocks on trade flows
Estimation of firm-level production function with spatial dependence
Impacts
of floods on firm-level micro performances
Firm-level production and
knowledge networks
Journal
Articles
1.
“Using Satellite-observed Geospatial Inundation Data
to Identify the Impacts of Flood on Firm-level Performances: The Case of China
during 2000–2009”, Accepted by Journal of
Environmental Economics and Management,
2025. With Fan Zheng.
Article Data & Programs Working paper
version Online Appendix
Working paper version: SMU Economics and Statistics Working Paper No. 01-2023.
2.
“The Depth of Preferential Trade Agreements,” Accepted by IMF Economic Review, 2025. With
Kefang Yao and Wei Jin.
Article Data & Programs Working paper
version Online Appendix
Working
paper version: SMU
Economics and Statistics Working Paper No. 01-2024.
3. “Global
Value Chains and the CPTPP,” The
World Economy, 2022, 45(12), pp. 3780-3832. With Phuong T. B.
Nguyen.
Article Data & Programs Working paper version
Working paper version: SMU Economics and Statistics Working Paper No.
12-2019.
4. “Good Names Beget Favors:
The Impact of Country Image on Trade Flows and Welfare,” Management Science, 2022, 68(10),
pp. 7065-7791. With Tomoki Fujii and
Wei Jin.
Article Data & Programs Working paper version Online Appendix
Working paper
version: SMU Economics and
Statistics Working Paper No. 03-2018. Circulated previously
under the title “Does “America First'' Help America? The Impact of Country Image on Exports and
Welfare.”
5.
“Informal Institutions and
Comparative Advantage of South-Based MNEs: Theory and Evidence,” Journal
of Development Economics, January 2021, 148, Article 102566. With
Yuting Chen.
6. “The Optimal Degree of Reciprocity in Tariff
Reduction,” East Asian Economic
Review (by Korea Institute for
International Economic Policy), 2020, 24(3), pp. 237-252.
7. “Made in
Singapore,” Singapore Economic Review, 2022, 67(06), pp. 1835-1904. With Phuong T. B. Nguyen.
8.
“Geography, Trade and Power-Law Phenomena,” Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance, January
2020. Oxford
University Press. With Wen-Tai Hsu.
9. “Trade and Divergence in Education Systems,” International Economic Review,
November 2014, 55(4): 1251–1280. With
Fali Huang (SMU).
10. “Risk and the
Technology Content of FDI: A Dynamic Model,” Journal of International Economics, March 2012, 86(2): 306–317. With Chia-Hui Lu (City
University of Hong Kong).
11. “The WTO Trade
Effect,” Journal
of International Economics, September 2011, 85(1): 53–71.
With Myoung-Jae Lee (Korea University).
Article Data
& Programs Working
paper version
12. “Estimation of
Impulse Response Functions Using Long Autoregression,” Econometrics Journal, July 2007, 10(2): 453–469. With Shinichi Sakata (University of British
Columbia).
13. “Avoiding Arbitrary Exclusion Restrictions
Using Ratios of Reduced-Form Estimates,” Empirical Economics,
2007, 33: 339–357. With Myoung-Jae Lee (Korea University).
14. “L S Penrose's limit
theorem: Tests by simulation,” Mathematical Social Sciences, January 2006,
51(1): 90–106. With Vincent C.H. Chua (SMU) and Moshé Machover (LSE).
15. “Protection for
sale under monopolistic competition,” Journal of International Economics, July 2005, 66(2): 509–526.
16. “How accurate are
confidence intervals for impulse responses in large VAR models?” Economics Letters, December 2000, 69(3): 299–307. With Lutz Kilian (University of
Michigan).
Chapters in Books
1.
“Quantifying Hallyu: A Structural Gravity Approach to the Nexus Between
Cultural Exports and International Trade,” with Iona Hyojung Lee, in Mapping
the Korean Wave: Disciplinary Approaches to Hallyu Studies, Natalia Grincheva
and Patrick Williams (eds), Routledge, forthcoming.
2. “Balance of Concessions
under the WTO and the Potential Direct/Indirect Impacts of the US Reciprocal
Tariffs on ASEAN Economies” in The Forty-Second Singapore Economic
Roundtable, Sharanya Shanmugam, Manu Bhaskaran, and Faizal Bin Yahya (eds),
NUS, 2025.
3. “Singapore in the Global
Value Chains,” with Phuong T. B. Nguyen, in The Singapore
Economy: Dynamism and Inclusion, Hian Teck Hoon (ed), Routledge, 2021.
Working paper version: SMU
Economics and Statistics Working Paper No. 1-2020.
4. “The Evolution and Utilization of the GATT/WTO Dispute
Settlement Mechanism,” in Trade Disputes and the Dispute
Settlement Understanding of The WTO, James C.
Hartigan (ed), Emerald, 2009.
5.
“Trade, FDI,
and Regional Competition: The Case of Singapore,” in The Economic Prospects of Singapore, Winston T.H. Koh and Robert S.
Mariano (eds), Singapore: Addison Wesley, 2005.
Working
Papers (contact me for the latest version)
1. “The Balance of Concessions
in Trade Agreements,” with
Mostafa Beshkar and Shenxi Song, 2026. SMU Economics and Statistics Working
Paper No. 05-2024. Revise and Resubmit: American Economic Journal: Economic
Policy.
(https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soe_research/2753)
Previous version: Chapter 1 in Shenxi’s PhD dissertation. Circulated previously under the title “The
Balance of Concessions in the World Trade Organization.”
(https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/etd_coll/411/)
2. “Estimating Firm-Level
Production Functions with Spatial Dependence in Output, Input, and
Productivity,” with Ryo Makioka, Bo Lin Ng, and Zhenlin Yang, 2026. SMU Economics and Statistics Working Paper
No. 10-2024.
(https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soe_research/2769)
3.
“The GATT/WTO Welfare
Effects: 1950-2015,” with Wei Jin and Kefang Yao, 2025. SMU Economics and Statistics Working
Paper No. 02-2018 (update No. 04-2022).
(https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soe_research/1957/)
4.
“Disentangling the Effects of GATT/WTO on Variable
and Fixed Trade Costs: Trade Status, Trade Margins, and Export Sales
Distribution,” with
Renjing Chen and Wei Jin, 2025. SMU
Economics and Statistics Working Paper No. 05-2022.
(https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soe_research/2612/)
5. “Labor Market
Participation, Income Distribution, and Welfare Gains from Trade,” with Yi-Fan Chen and Wen-Tai Hsu, 2026. SMU
Economics and Statistics Working Paper No. 06-2022.
Under review.
(https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soe_research/2614/)
6. “A Dynamic Quantitative
Analysis of Labor Market Implications of Taiwan’s WTO Accession: Skill,
Capital, and the China Shock,” with Yi-Fan Chen and
Wen-Tai Hsu, 2026. SMU Economics and Statistics Working Paper No.
07-2022.
(https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soe_research/2613/)
7. “The Response of the Chinese
Economy to the U.S.-China Trade War: 2018-2019,” with Kefang Yao and Fan
Zheng, 2026. SMU Economics and Statistics Working Paper No. 25-2020. Under review.
(https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soe_research/2415/)
8. “The Missing Middle in
Product Price Distribution,”
with Xin Yi and Haeyeon Yoon. SMU Economics and
Statistics Working Paper No. 05-2021.
Also available at SSRN.
(https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soe_working_paper/7/)
(https://ssrn.com/abstract=3889907)
9.
“The Potential Impacts of COVID-19 on the Global Value Chains: GVC
Positioning and Linkages,” with Gerald Foong. SMU Economics and
Statistics Working Paper No. 24-2020.
(https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soe_research/2411/)
10.
“Quantifying Quality Specialization Across Space:
Skills, Sorting, and Agglomeration,” with Angdi
Lu and Xin Yi. SMU Economics and Statistics Working Paper No.
2-2020.
(https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soe_research/2341/)
11. “Cultural Exposure and
International Trade: Evidence from the Korean Wave,” with
Iona Hyojung Lee, 2026. SMU Economics and Statistics Working
Paper No. 05-2018. Under review.
(https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soe_research/2142/)
Work in Progress
1. “Knowledge Networks in
Taiwan's Semiconductor Industry,” with
Ruoqing Chen and Lin Ma. 2026.
2. “Firm-Level Decomposition
of GVC,” with Yosuke Higashiyama and
Jin-Tan Liu, 2026.
3. “The SMU Trade Dashboard:
Tracking and Quantifying the Trump II Tariffs,” with Ruoqing Chen and Lin Ma. 2026.
(https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6449743)
(https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soe_research/2860/)
4. “Unifying Patent Data from
Heterogeneous Data Formats for Scalable Integration and Analysis,” with Khaing Phyo Wai, Ruoqing Chen, and Lin Ma. 2026.
5. “A Hybrid Patent Analytics
Framework for Monitoring AI Hardware Innovation,” with Khaing Phyo Wai and Lin Ma. 2026.
“sppmlhdfe:
Sparse Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Estimation with High-Dimensional Fixed
Effects,” with Lin Ma and Bohan Xue.
2026.
1.
“Networks of Knowledge,” with
Khaing Phyo Wai, Ruoqing Chen, Meng Xuen Lim, and Lin Ma. 2026. Annual Policy
Report, SMU Centre for Research on International Trade. (https://doi.org/10.25440/smu.32249292.v1)
2.
“Singapore in Global Value Chains: Implications of the Trump II
Tariffs,” with Ruoqing Chen, 2026. Commission Paper: Trade
Intelligence Center 2026. International
Institute for Trade and Development, Thailand.
3. “Global Rules for Global
Value Chains: An ASEAN Perspective,” with
Gerald Foong, 2026. Verve Research
Compendium.
Media Contributions and
Citations
2.
“US says
dozens of countries helped China dodge Trump's tariffs,” BBC, 14 Aug 2026, mentioned in:
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c78gy6ep3n5o
3. “Local Insights Into Global
Value Chains,” Asian
Management Insights, July 2025
4.
“Tracking the
Effects of Trade Shocks,” Research@SMU, May 2025
https://research.smu.edu.sg/news/2025/may/tracking-effects-trade-shocks
5.
“Trump 2.0 vs Global
Trade: What It Means for Singapore and the World,” Channel News Asia, 14 Feb 2025, mentioned in:
6. “How Covid-19 Could Transform the Global Economy,” SMU Engage: Thought Leadership, 21 April 2020
https://engage.smu.edu.sg/how-covid-19-could-transform-global-economy.
7.
“Singapore in the Global Value Chains,” The Business Times, Date: 18 March 2020
8.
“When Firms Turn Weakness
into Strength,” Asian Scientist Magazine, September 2019 https://www.asianscientist.com/2019/09/features/investments-singapore-china-government/.
9.
“The Intersection of
Education and Trade,” Asian Scientist Magazine, December 2013 https://www.asianscientist.com/2013/12/features/smu-professor-huang-fali-chang-pao-li-2013/. With Fali Huang.
Latest update 8/16/2026